The destructive wave that swept across the US economy in 2008 seemed to catch the world completely by surprise. The phrase so often used to describe it, a “financial tsunami,” reinforces the popular belief that the disaster arose suddenly. In reality the build up to the Great Recession could be clearly tracked and its timing predicted with a stunning degree of accuracy long before the phrase “collateralized debt obligation” entered the popular lexicon. The real cause of the crisis is far older, far more interesting, and far more profitable to understand for those interested in what lies ahead. As early as 1876, Henry George observed the curious cycle through which real estate markets inexorably move. His findings can be summarized (with the help of Glenn R. Mueller’s refinements) as follows. Phase I: Recovery We know the characteristics of a recession: high unemployment; decreased consumption; and decreased company investment in buildings, factories, and machines. The pr...
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