2015 & 2016 UBS Campden Research

Buffett’s Three-Step Rule of Focus for Success

To set you on the right course, take a coaching lesson from Buffett himself. He once walked his personal pilot through a life-changing exercise in goal-setting that's since become popular in productivity and career circles. It's a simple, three-step process to set boundaries, say no to distractions, and home in on success. It goes like this: 1. Write down a list of your top 25 career goals. 2. Circle the five most important goals that truly speak to you. These are your most urgent goals. Now here's the real kicker. 3. Completely eliminate the other 20 goals you have listed. Just cross them off, despite if they ...

CRE Distress is Still Out There................Lingering

Capital Scarcity Persists T here remains scheduled maturities in excess of $300 billion for each of the four years, 2014 through 2017. Most of this debt was underwritten during the peak of the last cycle from 2004 to 2007, when valuations were high and loan underwriting standards were loose, amortization disappeared and interest-only payment terms took its place. The majority of these loans are either under water (the loan is in excess of today's value of the property) or un-refinanceable, given today's lower asset valuations and more restrictive debt covenants. Additionally, a huge portion of the debt that matured during the 2009-2012 timeframe (per the graph below, in excess of $300 billion per year) has not yet been resolved. Maturities Catalyze opportunity It has been "extended and pretended" and still awaits recapitalization and resolution. In other words, the majority of the problem in CRE is still to be solved and the majority of the distre...

Harvard's Endowment commits to a target investment range into real estate between 10% to 17% for 2016

Years ago, before the downturn I was paying very close attention to the investing allocation of my Alma Maters Endowments Investing Strategy HMC (Harvard Management Company), especially in the area of real estate. I believe that not only was Harvard a great place to understand the importance of investment allocation strategies before the downturn but even more so since the downturn. In fact, investors who are looking to enhance the performance of their investment portfolios probably won’t find a better investment model than the one used by the $37.6 billion endowment for Harvard University. The entity in charge of managing the endowment, Harvard Management Company (HMC), has accrued an impressive investment track record across its 41-year history. As of fiscal year 2015, the endowment had produced an average annual return of 12.2% – 290 basis points higher than the average 9.3% return of a typical U.S. 60/40 stock and bond portfolio. The methodology behind HMC’s success i...

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