In my last two blogs, I went through why family
offices are not investing in opportunity zones…………….at least to the extent that
everyone thought they would be. So who
are the ones who are investing in these real estate opportunities? That is the institutions and the high net
worth individuals. But I see a problem
coming down the road with these high net worth investors. I don’t think they know what is coming down
the pike in the next seven years. Let me
give you an example. So I have $500K in
capital gains that I invest. Well, in
year 5, 10% of my capital gains are forgiven.
In another two years another 5%.
So in total, 15% is forgiven on the $500K, which is a total of 75K. So now I am left with a tax bill of $425K. So where is that money going to come from for
them to pay the taxes???? Remember these
are high net worth investors, not family office type capital. Now some sponsors say “well we will
refinance and they will be able to use that money” Well let's say that doesn’t happen…….now
what??? I suspect that many of these
investors, and I think a majority of them will not have the money to pay this
tax bill. Then what? Well, that is where I see them coming after
the sponsors because for sure there will be lawyers lining up to file class-action
lawsuits saying “they didn’t understand” (which personally is a whole another
topic that I feel strongly about.), but this will happen. I don’t think the sponsors see it coming
either but when there was a downturn which was coming after the sponsors? The retail clients, high net worth clients,
not the family offices, and the number of lawsuits were considerable. You heard it here; first, there will be issues when it comes time to
pay the taxes by high net worth investors.
Embedded in CNBC’s Real Estate “Recovery Watch” data center is evidence that the US real estate cycle is in full swing
Embedded in CNBC’s Real Estate “Recovery Watch” data center is evidence that the US real estate cycle is in full swing. You can access it here . It shows that of the 141 main cities in the contiguous United States, only 5 saw price falls in the last12 months (and those prices fell by 1 per cent in those 5 cities). Expect general rise in prices to continue for a while. Akhil Patel, of US Family Real Estate, said the following: “It’s ironic that CNBC refers to its graphics as a “recovery” watch. The US real estate market recovered a long time ago. The data shows that the current real estate cycle is now in full swing. Expect to see continued house price appreciation across the United States as well as rising demand for housing, increase in construction and mortgages. The real estate cycle plays out over 18-20 years historically, and there is much further to go.” You can read more about the cycle by downloading our White Paper.
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